It's strange to be considering the end of an era in Sacramento when they now only last a few months or so. But, an interesting question to consider -- are Speaker Bass and Minority Leader Villines on their way out?
If conventional wisdom has anything to do with it, and Propositions 1A-1E lose on May 19th, then i'ts difficult to see any other scenario than a change in leadership in both parties' lower house. One way or the other, one party is going to claim a mandate on the morning of May 20th and their resolve to move forward will be matched only by the resolve of the opposition to prevent their moving forward.
In short, this is a train wreck for both Bass and Villines, who crafted a compromise that no one is happy with.
Joel Matthews, in a great column The Fox and Hounds daily, put it succinctly:
"The first casualties of defeat likely would be political, not economic. It’s hard for me to see the Democratic and Republican leaders in the Assembly surviving such a defeat. Both Karen Bass and Mike Villines have put their prestige and credibility on the line in making the deal, and defending it. In doing so, they’ve taken a big political risk, and for a good reason. Without a deal, the state’s cash crunch would have hurt not only the government but also the economy."
Both Bass and Villines have gone "all in" on this package -- as have the Governor and Senate Pro-Tem Steinberg. But unlike these two, Bass and Villines are at the end of their Sacramento relevance. Both have cranky caucuses, upset and angered special interests to deal with, and ambitious politicos nipping at their heels (yes, there are dozens in town who believe they are best suited for the job).
What does this mean for cities? Well, there's likely promise as well as pitfalls. Simple odds dictate there's a good chance the next leaders could come from local government (as neither Bass nor Villines did) but there will also be incredible pressure on the lawmakers to borrow, raid, rip-off or steal local government funds. Though they have recently left local coffers alone, it's just as plausible that lawmakers will now take every cent they can off local governments.
What is clear is that the state will have a severely weakened Governor, and new (or weakened) legislative leaders entering negotiations at a most precarious time in California history. And at a time when we Californian's need to think bigger than our problems, we may end up stymied by a system that will only allow for more of the same.
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