Strong national trends and the spin machines from both major parties are doing their best to make hay of the election contests on Tuesday night. Here at CaliforniaCityNews we know that the most telling election results come from the diverse set of local elections we have from throughout the state and often provide a glimpse into the future of coming elections…
First, here’s what we do know: City election results largely mirrored the results and trends we have seen over the past four election cycles. New revenue measures (tax increase) continued to pass at the two-thirds rate - a remarkable number given the continued economic doldrums and voter angst about government activities at the state and federal level.
TRENDS
Continued support for revenue measures in these difficult times largely continued. The trend to protect local communities from the economic recession and state takeaways remained a compelling case for voters to entrust their local governments with additional revenue.
The strategy of “reduce and renew” on Utility Users Taxes (UUT’s) continued to be a winning one. 11 cities successfully utilized this strategy continuing a perfect record of wins by cities seeking to modernize their UUT ordinances. Only Coachella and Redondo beach lost UUT measures, a new UUT and an expansion as it related to a local power plant respectively.
Transient Occupancy Taxes (TOT’s) also fared well with the vast majority passing. Losses only occurred in Artesia, Rancho Palos Verdes, Blythe and San Anselmo. Special note on a regional strategy employed by cities in San Mateo County that acted in unison to raise TOT rates together from 10-12%...all city measures in the county were successful.
What this tells us is that voters continue to be open to tax increases at the local level – especially if they are extensions of what they are already paying (maintaining services) or taxing someone else.
The most interesting change came in the results of sales tax measures. These measures are often a good gauge of voter sentiment because it’s the most tangible sign of voters willingness to pay more to maintain or enhance services in their local community. Three of the five measures lost Tuesday night -– not many to draw much of a conclusive analysis but from what we can discern the losses came about from local dynamics as opposed to larger statewide trends.
As we have always advised –- the most significant indicator of a sales tax measure passing or failing is the cohesiveness of the council and the confidence the community has in them. Contentious council races, split councils and a history of failed measures in the past are key indicators in the chances of a measures passage or failure. Losses occurred in the cities of Salinas (40% YES - 60% NO), Ventura (44% YES – 55 % NO) and San Carlos (44% YES – 55% NO).
Salinas has "gone to the well" perhaps bit too frequently in recent years with revenue measure campaigns, and the continued history of seeking new revenues in this climate makes passage in this city an uphill climb at best. Measure K was a full cent tax increase and the local dynamics and history of tax measures coupled with low voter turnout explain the low 40% voter threshold of support.
Ventura showed both early promise and potential challenges in late summer as the council voted to authorize a vote on measure A – a half cent sales tax increase. A couple of years ago voters narrowly rejected a special tax for law enforcement (Measure P6 garnered 62% of the vote) and polling has consistently showed voter support levels for new revenue in the high 50’s. Ventura endured a very acrimonious election cycle with the local POA spending 20K in negative attack mailers to knock off an incumbent who raised the public pension reform issue. Along with tepid support from the business community, the local paper and recent controversies surrounding 911 fees and utility surcharge increases, voter support collapsed.
San Carlos also had a split council. A very public debate between employee compensation levels and new taxes by council members proved to be enough to move voters into the NO column…eerily similar to Ventura. As early as this spring voter support levels were polling in the low 60’s.
The lesson remains…if your city council isn’t in unanimous agreement on moving forward with a tax increase - think hard about going forward. If the council can’t agree, don’t expect the voters to hand you new revenue to figure it out later.
Michael Coleman from CaliforniaCityFinance has his usual thorough rundown of the tax votes here.
